OK, here goes.
Jeff, a sniff is not a search for several reasons. Before debating them, you must understand that courts (thus lawyers, LEO's, and other legal professionals) use the term 'search' as what we call a "term of art." 'Search' means that the 4th amendment kicks in; and the 4th amendment protects only against searches and seizures which are unreasonable, based on a totality of the circumstances.
A sniff is not a search because the nature of the intrusion is minimal, and very narrowly tailored in a way that does not implicate a privacy interest that society is prepared to recognize. The search (and a seizure) is what happens
after the trained dog alerts, giving rise to probable cause on the part of the officer; if at a traffic stop or any other place recognized as an exception to the general warrant requirement, he may search the area indicated, and the "wingspan" around it. If not, then he may secure the area (and the people in it), and use the dog's indication in support of his affidavit to the judge in securing a warrant. As the law stands, an alert by a trained K9 is, standing alone, constitutes PC.
Breathe...
Simon, you had it mostly right; add the fact that your expectation of privacy in a glass box on a public road is substantially diminished, and you'll almost be there. For God's sake, stop watching Judge Judy. Immediately.
Thomas, I'm not quite sure where to start. Your enthusiasm on the subject is to be highly commended, and I respect your expression of your opinion. Basically, I feel ya-no one wants to envision a "papers please" police state, but I think you're hitting mach 3 on the slippery slope here.
1) The "math" argument makes some sense, but I want you to show your work. At the very beginning of the first post on the subject, you quoted Mr. Bird's article (with which I was familiar some time ago, but am strained to recall at the moment), which made two major assumptions: a 98% ratio means 98% hit rate on positives, and 98% pass on drugless objects. That's a big leap, and not supported by the other studies I've seen. A dog that has a 98% hit rate will alert 98% of the time there are drugs present; the inverse is not necessarily true, and the facts derived therefrom are subject to attack based on the fallacy used to produce them. Essentially, numbers
can lie.
In addition, your figures implicitly eliminate cross-contamination issues, trace issues, and other things which can be present. I would, however, be interested to see a controlled experiment, vice Mr. Bird's apparently unsupported speculation on the subject. I highly doubt that Mr. Bird procured any dogs for his research. I will punch some keys on the subject, but experience tells me that he used other existing published data, and a hunch tells me he was selective about it. In any event, I am not easily swayed by the idle manipulation of numbers.
My final comment on Mr. Bird's piece, and therefore your citation of it, is that it improperly narrows the examination of the body of caselaw on the subject. In teh excerpt you chose he cites two 9th circuit opinions which trace their rationale to United States v. Place; those cases are not the complete picture of why the sniff was permissible. You simply must dig deeper to understand that the limited nature of the intrusion, whether the person is present or not, is part of what makes the tactic constitutionally correct.
2) Even if your math was right (I'm not saying it isn't, I'm just asking you to break it down Barney-style for us Marines-we don't reed gud), it wouldn't change the fundamental principle on which the Court has balanced its opinion: the sniff only indicates the presence or absence of contraband, the nature of the intrusion is limited, and there is no actionable privacy interest in contraband. That would be true even if the numbers you assert are correct.
3) I believe that the citizens of a constitutional democracy would be elated to know that a dog, acting only in concert with one trained handler, could detect the presence of 50 persons posessing drugs in a crowd. Remember that, based on your analysis, 9,750 people were
totally undisturbed by the ordeal...
4) As for explaining this issue to a jury, it probably won't happen. The existence or absence of PC is a question of law, resting soundly within the province of the judge. This is an issue decided at a motions hearing, in the absence of the members. Rightly so, as you correctly noted that there exists the potential that a body of laymen might be swayed by statistical distortion, in either direction.
However, I've stood in front of a jury or two, and made some arguments to judges as well. I know this much: juries are smarter than you think, and the judge is probably two steps ahead of you (after all, he's already read the motion, your brief, opposing counsel's brief, and done his homework, to say nothing of having heard countless other motions just like it). In either case, what they'll see is an officer under oath with carefully maintained records to back up every word coming out of his mouth. And let's face facts: you don't get to be a "defendant" because they didn't find any dope. While the results of the search do not militate to the conclusion that the search was legally correct, it seems to say something about the accuracy of the dog...
Breathe...
Parting shot: you said in your post
"If you are smart you will use your dog only when there is a reasonable suspicion of wrong doing, no matter what the courts have decided is “legal”"
When LEOs start making decisions on their own, regardless of what the courts have said, then our system of justice is truly subverted. LEOs are tasked with enforcing the law, as set forth by the legislature and interpreted by the courts. Failure to utilize a tool which has been blessed by the courts is not responsible stewardship of that responsibility.
Kevin, I didn't even have to stand up from the 'puter to retrieve my copy of The Art of War. Sun Tzu said:
"Nothing is more difficult than the art of manoeuvre. What is difficult about manoeuvre is to make the devious route the most direct and to turn misfortune to advantage."
Discuss.
P.S. I demand an award for the longest post in history. There's gotta be a ribbon for that somewhere.
My posts reflect my own opinions, and not those of the Marine Corps or the United States.