 How predictive can puppy evaluations be?
#275422 - 05/06/2010 05:04 PM |
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I've been perusing the websites of working dog kennels (GSD's, Mal's and DS's). Several of the breeders will divide up a litter into categories such as:
serious drive and working potential
moderate drive
companion or pet
and then price the dogs accordingly.
My question is how accurate are the breeder's evaluations by 8 weeks of age in the pups within a given litter? Are there "companion or pet" pups of good parents that just develop their drive qualities later? Are there false positive identifications of "high drive" pups that are simply hyperactive at 8 weeks?
Trying to sort through what appears to be quite a bit of hype and marketing in the working dog business.
Is it safe to assume that pups with titled parents (e.g. Sch3) are preferable to pups with only one parent titled, or pups whose parents are not titled at all?
Thanks for any information.
A dog has alot of friends because he wags his tail instead of his mouth.
- Charlie Daniels |
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 Re: How predictive can puppy evaluations be?
[Re: Rob Abel ]
#275424 - 05/06/2010 05:21 PM |
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Ron,
I've found the Bernhard Flinks selection test to be pretty accurate for evaluating the potential of future work dogs.
It's here on the website:
http://leerburg.com/scoresheet.htm
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puppy evaluations
[Re: Will Rambeau ]
#275431 - 05/06/2010 06:35 PM |
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Will, that does look pretty objective. Hopefully, the breeders are basing their opinions on surveys like this.
Do these results tend to hold true over time?
Thanks!
A dog has alot of friends because he wags his tail instead of his mouth.
- Charlie Daniels |
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Re: puppy evaluations
[Re: Rob Abel ]
#275432 - 05/06/2010 06:40 PM |
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Rob,
I've run that test now on dozens of litters for several members of this forum, and I'll bet that we've had a 90% accuracy rate over time.
Yes, it is subjective, and it depends a lot on the experience level of the grader, but after you've done them for a while and seen the long term results, the results speak for themselves. 
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Re: puppy evaluations
[Re: Will Rambeau ]
#275448 - 05/06/2010 07:47 PM |
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My breeder is darn good with predicting a dogs temperament over time. I let her pick my last pup and she was bang on about every single pup in the litter! They live with a pup for 7-8 weeks full-time. They know more about those pups than anyone else.
Elise
Fontaine d'Or Emily RPT, FMCh, TFE, HITs, BH (HIT), CD
Whisper FDCh-S
Fontaine d'Or Hang on Tight |
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Re: puppy evaluations
[Re: Will Rambeau ]
#275452 - 05/06/2010 08:16 PM |
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Rob,
I've run that test now on dozens of litters for several members of this forum, and I'll bet that we've had a 90% accuracy rate over time.
Yes, it is subjective, and it depends a lot on the experience level of the grader, but after you've done them for a while and seen the long term results, the results speak for themselves.
Before Will left me and moved cross country he tested my litters for me. He was right on each and every time.
The results are different when pups are tested by a new person in a new place then when the breeder tests. Part of the test is how the pup reacts with the stress of the unknown added in.
To me, as a breeder, you take the test done properly and add in your observations of the litter coupled with your knowledge of your bloodlines and you should be pretty accurate.
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Re: puppy evaluations
[Re: Betty Waldron ]
#275470 - 05/06/2010 10:43 PM |
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Very cool. Thanks for all the information. I'm glad to hear that the screenings do carry some weight (Now, if I can just get Will to travel to the litter...) 
A dog has alot of friends because he wags his tail instead of his mouth.
- Charlie Daniels |
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Re: puppy evaluations
[Re: Rob Abel ]
#275471 - 05/06/2010 10:47 PM |
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Hint, hint. Maybe if he can't travel, some videos of the babies? I'm so glad you continue to move forward with your decision!
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Re: puppy evaluations
[Re: aimee pochron ]
#275472 - 05/06/2010 10:59 PM |
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You bet videos when I get closer. Unfortunately (for my immediate pup acquisition plans), son is moving back home with a rescue Border Collie yearling for a little while. Sounds like a great dog, but I don't want to bring a pup into the mix while his dog is here. But thanks, Aimee, and yup - moving forward for sure (albeit all in my head, at the moment).
Hopefully, my boy will launch about the time I get a bunch of free time. THEN videos 
A dog has alot of friends because he wags his tail instead of his mouth.
- Charlie Daniels |
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Re: puppy evaluations
[Re: Rob Abel ]
#275486 - 05/07/2010 06:52 AM |
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FWIW: I just talked to a Sheriff's Dept S/R guy about this last weekend. He has a bloodhound and was doing a tracking demo and he was telling me how he got to pick it out of the litter as a pup. He tested the whole litter using the test in the back of the Monks of New Skete book and now this dog is 3-4 years old and the test was spot-on. He said he's always had good results with that test.
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