Testing dogs for police work is my direct area of specialty but the text below is borrowed from other sources as well.
The question usually asked is - in selecting a german shepherd for police work or guide dog work, how reliable are puppy tests?
That is a difficult question to answer because of a dearth of validated and peer-reviewed research on the topic. Serpell and Hsu (2000) use a mathematical method called factor analysis and develop a method to predict the behavior and temperament of potential guide dogs. Three of the eight factors they identify exhibited moderate internal consistency with Cronbach's alpha >=0.72 while the reliability of the remaining factors were rather low.
Note that the pups assessed in the Serpell-Hsu study were about a year old - and that is not a bad time to assess the suitability for work. With younger pups, you tend to be on shakier grounds. Very surprisingly, research using pups at the South African Police Service Dog Breeding Centre has shown that the gunshot test at 8 weeks had very little predictive reliability for police dog work; the test that had the most statistical significance was the test of retrieval at 8 weeks (Slabbert and Odendaal, 1999). Wilsson and Sundgren (1998) tested 630 german shepherd puppies at 8 weeks of age according to the regimen used to select service dogs. They wanted to assess if adult behavior could be predicted at eight weeks of age. Their research concludes that puppy testing is not useful in predicting adult suitability for service dog work. Finally, Goddard and Beilharz (1984) did factor analysis of fearfulness in potential guide dogs. Their research finds that adult fearfulness could be predicted to some degree from fearfulness at 3 months of age but more importantly they find that the accuracy of prediction increases with age of the pup.
To be on the safe side, if you have absolutely made up your mind that you want a puppy rather than a grown dog for service work, here are some of my suggestions, all of them likely to get flak:
a) Avoid show lines and avoid the AKC altogether
b) Avoid ALL American breeders of german shepherds
c) Go for the Malinois rather than the GSD. And buy ONLY from Europe and not from any American breeder.
My reasons for a) are obvious.
My reasons for b) are as follows: ZW or Zuchtwert scores for canine hip dysplasia are an indicator of the inheritability of this debilitating illness. ZW scores are unfortunately completely ignored by American breeders but are extensively used in Germany for breeding purposes. Casual empiricism suggests that dogs from the Bundessiegerprüfung (working trials) tend to have lower ZW scores than dogs from the Bundessiegerhauptzuchtschau (show championships). Lower ZW scores for HD (in the 60s, 70s and 80s) are highly desirable and careful attention must be paid to Zuchtwert scores when acquiring a german shepherd.
You may say both my sire and dam jump effortlessly onto the bed of my F-350 and they have no hip dysplasia. So why should anyone ask me about the expected ZW scores of the litter? Unfortunately, german shepherds are genetically prone to hip dysplasia. Dogs with normal hips may have a large number of dysplasia-promoting genes and can therefore transmit hip dysplasia-predisposing genes to their offspring. Which is why the expected ZW score of the litter is important.
No American breeder can ever tell you the expected ZW score of the litter!
My reason for c) avoiding the GSD altogether in favor of the Malinois is as follows:
Organizations are increasingly opting for the Belgian Malinois over the german shepherd. This is an increasing trend all over Europe too - and I hope a trend that will eventually be reversed! For instance, the favored breed for explosive and mine detection dogs in Switzerland tend to be malinois, as they say on their home page. The Duesseldorf Police Department in Germany has 21 dog handlers with only 3 german shepherds but 18 malinois. Their handlers can get malinois for free from Northrhine Westfalian Police's own breeding kennel at Landespolizeischule where they breed malinois, but if handlers prefer a german shepherd, they have to purchase it on their own from a private breeder. Even german GSD breeders are increasingly failing to meet organizational expectations when it comes to GSDs.
But the main reason why the police are (and rightly so) opting for the Malinois over the GSD is HEALTH:
The summary below may clarify the health distinctions between the two breeds:
Belgian Malinois:
• Major concerns: none
• Minor concerns: CHD, epilepsy, skin allergies
• Occasionally seen: none
German shepherds:
• Major concerns: CHD, elbow dysplasia
• Other common concerns: panosteitis, vWD, progressive posterior paresis, cauda equina, pyotraumatic dermatitis, skin allergies, malignant neoplasms, pannus, cataract, gastric torsion, perianal fistulas, cardiomyopathy
• Minor concerns: pancreatic insufficiency
• Note: GSDs are especially susceptible to a potentially fatal systemic fungal infection from Aspergillus. Most breeders fail to focus on breeding dogs with minimal health problems. Even the German breeders who pay some attention to hip and elbow dysplasia fail to focus on other problems common to GSDs like Degenerative Myelopathy. The well-known Ross Township Police K-9 unit in Pittsburgh recently lost their best K-9 Sari to Degenerative Myelopathy, which resembles hip dysplasia but the spinal cord degenerates from the tail forward. This is a fairly common condition among german shepherds and dogs can show signs of this disease at a very young age. Epilepsy is another genetic condition among german shepherds and the disorder can express itself only when the dog is about 3 or 4 years old. There is no way to test for this disease until the dog starts having seizures. German shepherds also can have soft ears which causes a host of ear infections. Pannus is an eye condition in german shepherds in which the blood vessels grow onto the cornea. It is controllable but not curable and can lead to blindness. Peripheral Vestibular Disease is a congenital defect of the middle ear that german shepherds rarely recover from. It causes puppies to circle in an unbalanced manner with a tilt in the head. Panosteitis (also called pano, wandering lameness, shifting leg lameness or long bone disease) is a painful condition that shows up in many german shepherds between 5-12 months of age. Von Willebrand's Disease is a blood disorder that is common to german shepherds and the results of breeding two dogs with this disorder are lethal.
European breeders of GSDs believe that the german shepherd's excellence in work weeds out unhealthy stock. This is a very serious error on their part that has affected the breed's health. Many police departments initially start out with both malinois and german shepherds, usually dogs imported from Europe. But over a period of time they realize the intimidating health problems and veterinary/surgical expenses associated with german shepherds and gradually move to an all-Malinois K-9 unit.
Sources:
(1) James Serpell and Yuying Hsu (2001), "Development and validation of a novel method for evaluating behavior and temperament in guide dogs," Applied Animal Behavioral Science, 72, pp 347-364.
(2) J.M. Slabbert and J.S.J. Odendaal (1999), "Early prediction of adult police dog efficiency - a longitudinal study, Applied Animal Behavioral Science, 64, 4, pp 269-288.
(3) E. Wilsson and P. Sundgren (1998), "Behavior test for 8-week old puppies: Heritabilities of tested behavior traits and its correspondence to later behavior, Applied Animal Behavioral Science, 58, 1, pp 151-162.
(4) M.E. Goddard and R.G. Beilharz (1984), "A factor analysis of fearfulness in potential guide dogs," Applied Animal Behavioral Science, 12, pp 253-265.
Joseph Xavier
ED's COMMENTS EDITED IN:
Joseph Xavier s a complete NUT CASE - I mean a mental case. He lives at 471 WASHINTON AVE
COLORADO CITY AZ 86021
Phone 206-978-4385
He claimed to live in Canada and is in fact living in a strict mormon community that practises poligamy. On a scale of 1 to 10 he is in the 10 range for crazy people who have contacted us over the years
This guy is completly nute - he is a mental case